Guy Clapperton The GuardianAs reported a few weeks ago in these pages, the market is being flooded with touchscreen phones - and this time there's no controversy over whether they've succeeded: sales of the iPhone surprised even its most ardent admirers from day one.
Meanwhile, the desktop market is showing signs of adopting similar technology. Both Apple's next operating system and the next version of Windows will contain "hooks" for touchscreen technology, if installed on the right hardware.
This has led to speculation about the future of the keyboard and mouse. "We already have well-integrated touch technology on consumer electronics, from Apple's multitouch devices (iPhone, MacBook Pro, the new Mac operating system), games consoles (Nintendo DS) and now PCs and notebooks," says a spokesman for HP, which has now released the TouchSmart, a desktop system with a touch interface. And this month, Dell released a module to turn its Latitude XT Tablet computer into a full-blown touch-operated system.
All of this adds weight to comments from respected research house Gartner, which last week said the day of the mouse, if not the keyboard, may well be numbered. Speaking to the BBC's news website, the organisation said the mouse would last three to five years tops, to be replaced by gesture-based computing and other technologies, such as gesture recognition, which are emerging in the home entertainment market.
It could be that there's more going on than a few product launches, but there will be practical issues. Richard MacKinnon, a business psychologist for the people assessment company Talent Q, has a postgraduate diploma in ergonomics and says touchscreens are unlikely to be suited for use over long periods of time. They also inadvertently promote poor posture, and reduced productivity through reduced typing speeds. "Touchscreens can have a place in entertainment scenarios, but in the office environment? I don't think we're there yet," he says.
Dumbing down? Other academics concur. "It all depends on the ease of use of the technology, whether or not it's fit for purpose, and how well it maps to people's mental model of their tasks," says Chris Clegg, professor of organisational psychology and deputy director of the Centre for Organisational Strategy, Learning and Change at Leeds University Business School. Future generations may also adapt better than the current Qwerty-bound people. "I couldn't have imagined taking to texting, and I still don't find it friendly, but a lot of people use it extensively."
Non-psychologists also have reservations. Pete Bennett, chief executive of the training provider Learning Resources International, has doubts about the quality of the information available to non-keyboardists. "Nobody wants to sound like a luddite, of course anything can happen and things can change - but I can't see it being anywhere near anything other than basic functions," he says. "Our background is in designing learning materials and if you're only using a finger, there isn't much action involved."
Fingers acting as a mouse is one thing, he says, but a mouse doesn't type. "The interaction of typing helps people read the words, retain the words and I don't see how a touchscreen can replace that requirement. It's a bit dumb, in a non-insulting manner." It could be great for some applications, he says - shopping and anything involving lists - but for anything requiring thought and which is challenging there's a need for more interaction.
Let's assume some sort of change is on the way. The next question for everyone will be how quickly it's going to happen - and therefore how soon to eBay those old non-touch screens. "As we've seen with Office and Vista, people can be very resistant to changes in their technology that are two steps ahead of the previous version," says Darren Van Laar, principle lecturer in psychology at the University of Portsmouth. "If it's incremental versions then people don't mind - if they have to unlearn too much then it gives them a problem." This is presumably why Microsoft is reportedly considering several mini-releases of Windows next time around rather than a single larger launch.
Reactions are bound to be mixed early on. One user of the HP Touchsmart, which is the first mainstream computer to be released based on touchscreens outside the Tablet PC (which is pen- rather than finger-sensitive), enthused at first. "It's a terrific box, loving the integrated DTV and dead easy to get going with," she said. However: "We don't use the touchscreen, though. Partly old habits, but mainly due to the fact that it gets intolerably grubby after use. Should come with a box of wipes, really."
Fingering the problem If this is typical - and it's anecdotal rather than a scientific sample, of course - then the dawn of the touchscreen age may have a slightly bumpy beginning. Add to this the fact that at a pre-launch event another HP spokesperson pointed to the screen's value as a kitchen computer - eliminate all those recipe books, have demonstrations of cooking techniques on tap as well as static pictures, went the patter - and the idea of dirty fingerprints all over it becomes less of a small problem than an epidemic. Particularly when the current models retail for more than £1,000.
Nonetheless, the HP spokesman's original point - that we've adopted touch for phones and games consoles happily enough - remains valid. In January 2007 Apple launched the multitouch screen for what would evolve into its iPhone, while in February 2006 a professor from New York University demonstrated a full screen using touch technology (The hands-on revolution, January 18, 2007). Following a year in which the iPhone and iPod Touch enjoyed a near-monopoly, touchscreen products are now arriving on the market en masse. At this stage it looks unlikely that keyboards and mice will actually be displaced in people's affections, but they may find they have a new, touchy-feely running partner in the right niches before long.
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